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Mark Booth

New Member
Bronze
Jun 28, 2007
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#1
Apple announced that it shipped 270,000 iPhones in the last quarter (ended June 30). That's how many went to Apple and AT&T stores for the release weekend. And, as we all know, all Apple and AT&T stores sold out by Sunday of release weekend.

Reality: Apple sold 270,00 iPhones in the first 2.5 days.

That's almost double the AT&T activation figure and strongly underlines why so many analysts (and naysayers) overreacted in the last 24 hours.

Source: http://blogs.businesss2.com/Apple/2007/07/apple-q3-report.html

BTW, this news came out after the market closed. Just before the news was announced, Apple's shares were down in after hours trading. But as soon as the news hit, Apple's (after hours) share price shot straight back up! It's at almost $145 a share at this writing! YEEEEEE HAAAA!
 

aggieman

Zealot
Gold
Jul 6, 2007
4,053
85
48
Dallas, TX
#2
Apple announced that it shipped 270,000 iPhones in the last quarter (ended June 30). That's how many went to Apple and AT&T stores for the release weekend. And, as we all know, all Apple and AT&T stores sold out by Sunday of release weekend.

Reality: Apple sold 270,00 iPhones in the first 2.5 days.

That's almost double the AT&T activation figure and strongly underlines why so many analysts (and naysayers) overreacted in the last 24 hours.

Mark
i'd venture to say the difference in the numbers from what was shipped and sold to what was activated is the flood of them that ended up on eBay and the number of people that were waiting to activate either for their contract to end or waiting to decide if they wanted to keep it or not, since there is a restock fee if opened.
 

Sleeper

New Member
Bronze
Jul 21, 2007
256
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#3
You seem to have missed the fact that most of the analysts - including the risible Gene Munster - vastly overestimated sales after the opening weekend when, in fact, their original estimates were much closer to the mark.

So Apple did as well as expected which was pretty well.
 

DRabbit

New Member
Bronze
Jul 2, 2007
383
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0
#4
I was under the impression that 270,000 was ONLY for the first 30 hours of sales... only for the last quarter (ie., JUNE), which would have been Friday night and all day Saturday only.
 

cdodkin

New Member
Bronze
Jul 2, 2007
305
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www.d30-images.com
#6
Munster's model predicted 200,000 units sold by qtr end, and he speculated that they might do 500,000 iPhones during the first weekend.

So 270,000 units sold from 6pm Friday through close of qtr Saturday, could still be in line with 500,000 total by the end of businesss Sunday.

Basically the iPhone was only on Apples Q3 radar from Fri 6pm East Coast through Sat 10pm West Coast - so 9 hrs on Sat (Apple stores stayed open till midnight on Fri), plus 15 hrs on Saturday (9-9 + 3 for West coast) Total 24 hrs for 270,000 units, that's just over 3 iPhones per second.

Having checked stock on Sat and Sunday via Apple's website, sales were still going strong in many areas through the whole weekend, so both numbers could in fact be correct.
 

Sleeper

New Member
Bronze
Jul 21, 2007
256
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#7
Munster's original forecast was 200,000 units to be sold on the Friday and Saturday. He then published his analysis that 500,000 could have been sold between 6pm Friday and close of businesss Sunday.

It is, however, unlikely an extra 230,000 units were sold during trading hours on Sunday. I would put the total weekend figure nearer 350-400,000.

Still pretty impressive but not the hysterical figures quoted by Munster or, worse, Goldman Sachs. Looks like JP Morgan got it about right though.
 

cdodkin

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Jul 2, 2007
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www.d30-images.com
#8
So taking all factors into account:

3.125 iPhones sold per second during trading on Fri and Sat.

Sunday trading from 9am East through 9pm West, = 15 Hrs = 168,750 additional sales

This does not include all Web sales which can of course be going on 24x7.

So that's 270,000 + 168,750 = 438,750

Plus 'out of hours' web sales, so 500,000 is not 'hysterical' or out of line.

Couple that with the sheer delays on iDay where AT&T couldn't even process us in store in under 30 mins due to their systems being overwhelmed (I was there)

500,000 iPhones sold = not a problem

1,000,000 by end of 4th Qtr = very plausible
 

cj sparrow

New Member
Bronze
Jul 24, 2007
30
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0
Colorado
#9
My story

So here is another testimonial.

I purchased my iPhone on that Friday night. I activated it on Saturday morning.

Later that weekend, I talked to my children who were on vacation and they asked that I would get them each a phone. (Yes Virginia, they did reimburse me.)

They did not activate their phones until a couple of weeks later when they returned home.

Net result:

Number of phones sold that first weekend = 3
Number of phone activated that first weekend = 1
 

Mark Booth

New Member
Bronze
Jun 28, 2007
62
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0
#10
As much as I'd like to believe that Apple sold more than 270,00 iPhones during the first 2.5 days (I am an Apple stock holder), it's my belief that 270,000 is exactly how many they sold through Sunday, July 1. I base that belief on the fact that Apple SHIPPED 270,000 iPhones through Saturday, June 30 (the last quarter reported). Since some Apple stores were sold out by Saturday night and those stores didn't have any additional stock on Sunday, it's my belief that Apple did NOT ship any more iPhone's to stores on Sunday. Then, all stores were sold out by Sunday night so that translates to 270,000 sold the first weekend (counting Friday night).

More phones started hitting Apple stores again on Monday and Tuesday following that release weekend. So, clearly, Apple has sold more SINCE the initial weekend. But I firmly believe that 270K is all that they sold through the first 2.5 days.

Mark
 
Jul 13, 2007
10
0
0
#11
It seems like a lot of people here are trying real hard to convince themselves that Apple sold more than what was reported.

You know what? I couldn't care less how many iPhones Apple did or didn't sell. As long as they sold one ... mine.
 

Sleeper

New Member
Bronze
Jul 21, 2007
256
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#12
True, Mr Chuckles.

I guess the really interesting figures will be the Q4 results which will show iPhone demand over a longer period and which should also show demand peaks and trends.

However, I think we need to be clear that 270,000 phones sold in two days is a very, very impressive initial result and ahead of initial - and reasoned - estimates. It is only the over excitable fools in Wall Street who projected the sales of a few stores to the US nation who are really disappointed here.