Having some 4s problems

iP5

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On the 5% being a growing chance. That is a common misunderstanding. It remains one in 20. Always.

On the 4s issues. I am going to write out mine on my iPad and send it to myself so ivan copy and paste here, because guess what, my EVERYTHING force closes. Half the apps won't load at all.
Actually, like the lottery, your chance each time is the same, say 1 in 20, but your odds in three independent pulls of scoring the lemon three times, that's 1 in 8000. Might want to review your text on probability before we continue this misunderstanding ;)

forum: just talking about math in general now, ok.

and yeah, getting 1 in 20 twice in two rolls is exactly 1 chance in 400, not less, not more.

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Rugaby

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Actually, like the lottery, your chance each time is the same, say 1 in 20, but your odds in three independent pulls of scoring the lemon three times, that's 1 in 8000. Might want to review your text on probability before we continue this misunderstanding ;)

forum: just talking about math in general now, ok.

and yeah, getting 1 in 20 twice in two rolls is exactly 1 chance in 400, not less, not more.

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If there was a known number of bad phones. Correct? Playing devils advocate now lol
 

iP5

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If there was a known number of bad phones. Correct? Playing devils advocate now lol
With the phones, absolutely, it's a moving target until the production is closed, and cold statistical accuracy has to be vetted past marketing and legal.

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iP5

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We also, well I also started all this with the "5%" number. This is unknown for now.
I remember. Something pulled from your crack. Hence why I said, just talking about the math. :)

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ZenFury

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No, if it is 5% of phones, each time is a 5% chance. Period. This is one of the most debated, but also least properly understood by most people, concepts in statistics. Best explanation to clearly understand this principle was actually given by the crew at skeptics guide to the universe if you want to go have a listen. My safari won't last long enough to explain it to you if you can't logically see it.
 

ZenFury

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Also, the he removed one etc is a ridiculous argument because it is predicate on the idea he is the ONLY person to remove one. Just saying...
 

Rugaby

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Also, the he removed one etc is a ridiculous argument because it is predicate on the idea he is the ONLY person to remove one. Just saying...
It actually isn't ridiculous. It is mathematical law. The fact that more people remove bad ones also just further proves my point that you can find/predict/determine probability of getting a bad phone accurately.
 

iP5

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No, if it is 5% of phones, each time is a 5% chance. Period. This is one of the most debated, but also least properly understood by most people, concepts in statistics. Best explanation to clearly understand this principle was actually given by the crew at skeptics guide to the universe if you want to go have a listen. My safari won't last long enough to explain it to you if you can't logically see it.
Here's a lot of 5 items:
ABCDE
Disregard any meaning beyond each item is independent and unique.
In one random try you have 1 in 5 to get A.

The combinations in two tries are:
AA AB AC AD AE BA BB BC, etc
There are 25 permutations. Your chance in getting AA in one go, 1 in 25.

Yes, each try has the same probability, 1 in 5. Success or failure has zero impact on successive attempts, 1 in 5.

But, at minimum, you have to do 25 pulls to get all possibilities and your chance of getting AA, 1 in 25.

Look, know your details and read closely if you want to discuss this. Right now you're taking the one thing learned and ...

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Rugaby

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Here's a lot of 5 items:
ABCDE
Disregard any meaning beyond each item is independent and unique.
In one random try you have 1 in 5 to get A.

The combinations in two tries are:
AA AB AC AD AE BA BB BC, etc
There are 25 permutations. Your chance in getting AA in one go, 1 in 25.

Yes, each try has the same probability, 1 in 5. Success or failure has zero impact on successive attempts, 1 in 5.

But, at minimum, you have to do 25 pulls to get all possibilities and your chance of getting AA, 1 in 25.

Look, know your details and read closely if you want to discuss this. Right now you're taking the one thing learned and ...

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Your example is if you return A to the pool. When you buy a phone and it is defect your odds of getting that same defective phone are zero in Infiniti since it doesn't exist anymore.
 

iP5

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All good. Was curious was all. Didn't think I had stepped on your toes.
Not at all and very strange, my Tapatalk started acting up. Tried to quote Zen and got something from another thread by a guy named TheFron. Had to go to the desktop to correct things.
 
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iP5

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Not intending to pick on you Rom X, but 25% reporting battery issues of 22% regrets infers 5.5% battery issues.

But yes, more than one issue increases the odds of a defective phone.

For Zen: 3 independent defects each at 5% occurrence in a closed population. at best its a 5% defect rate if the bad pool overlaps, at which point it's arguably not an independent problem. at worst its a 15% defect rate that you will catch at least one flaw. the actual number depends on the overlap of defects.