iPhone available at 2000 stores at launch

ColsTiger

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According to the Cingular documentation that has been posted, they don't want people discussing any discounted prices for contract extensions yet. It sounds to me like they haven't decided exactly what sort of deals will be available. I'm hoping there will be an upgrade price because one of the lines on my plan is available for upgrade at this moment. If there is not an upgrade price, then I'll pay the $600 without hesitation.
 

ckontyko

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My launch forcast

Coming from a manufacturing background I can tell you that 100K is not, by any stretch of the imagination, a large order. The launch window will be the highest short term volume of sales they will experience for the product. I'd be surprized if they launch with anything less that a million units. More likely it'll be closer to 2 million +.

I mean, Apple has to sell nearly a million a month to just meet their target. And targets are ALWAYS set with the intension to beat them.
Agreed... Also coming from a mass production manufacturing environment, I would say Apple will launch with 1 million units.

The short calculations...


  • Apple wants to sell 10 million in the first year (July 1, 2007 to July 1, 2008, presumably). 10M(units)/365(days/year) = 27,400 units sold per day.
    27,400(units/day)/2000(stores) = 14 units sold per store per day.

  • Apple kept a target of 14 days of inventory in each Apple store in 2003 (see article on the stores), so 14(units/store/day)*14(days inventory) = 196 iPhones per store, with a steady replenishment. This number should be even higher, in order to anticipate initial surge. And, of course, some stores will have more/less than others, depending on the local market.

  • Using 196 iPhones per store on launch day... 196(iPhones/store@launch)*2000(stores) = almost 400,000 iPhones needed for launch, minumum.

But then Apple will have to replenish stock at some/all stores after the first week, so they will need more than 400,000 iPhones on hand, unless they want to fly iPhones from China to their distribution warehouses after the first week of sales. This would be stupid... transporting iPhones by boat from China and then trucking them to the distribution warehouses would be the cost effective way). But transporting by boat takes time, blahblahblah, so, 1 million iPhones at launch isn't unreasonable at all.

(the SWAG method: 10M per year is 500K per month plus holiday sales, then double 500K monthly demand for launch = 1 Million. But it was more fun doing it the long way, wasn't it? :p :laugh2:)

-CJ
 

ckontyko

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Remember, Apple's stated goal is to sell 10 million units world wide by the end of 2008. That gives them 18 months....
I thought Steve said Apple wanted to sell 10 million in the first year in the keynote speech? that's why I mentioned July 1, 2007 to July 1, 2008 in my calculation above.

I could most definitely be wrong, however. :) And I'm too lazy to go back and replay the keynote!

-CJ
 

ColsTiger

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I thought Steve said Apple wanted to sell 10 million in the first year in the keynote speech? that's why I mentioned July 1, 2007 to July 1, 2008 in my calculation above.

I could most definitely be wrong, however. :) And I'm too lazy to go back and replay the keynote!

-CJ
With the excitement building up like it is now, I don't see any problem with them selling 10M units by next July. I've got 12 and 13 year old students coming to me to ask about iPhone. It's definitely going to be a hit.
 

robhon

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I thought Steve said Apple wanted to sell 10 million in the first year in the keynote speech? that's why I mentioned July 1, 2007 to July 1, 2008 in my calculation above.

I could most definitely be wrong, however. :) And I'm too lazy to go back and replay the keynote!

-CJ
I don't remember where I heard it but I believe the figure is 10M units in 2008. Not sure what they are planning to sell in the second half of 2007.

I believe that 10M unit mark is set at 1% of the projected mobile phone market in 2008.
 

wot_fan

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I don't remember where I heard it but I believe the figure is 10M units in 2008. Not sure what they are planning to sell in the second half of 2007.

I believe that 10M unit mark is set at 1% of the projected mobile phone market in 2008.
I double checked the keynote and you are correct. Steve said that he wanted 1% market share/10 million units sold in 2008 (not by the end of 2008). Sorry for the misinformation :oops:.
 

thepepes

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I work in Beachwood Ohio so there is a Apple store about 5 min away from me along with a few Cingular stores...instead of me going to wrok at 7am I think I will just head over to one of the stores...Just don't know which one...I am sure the Apple store would get more but will it be more crowded..

I also need to figure out how the plans will work...I am still under a plan until December and I thought I heard people saying that I will still be able to get the phone at the $450 price but will need to extend the contract another 2 years which is fine if this is true but Cingular never let me do this before...you were only able to upgrade when you were with them 11 months then you got the upgrade price...BUT if you want a new phone and you under 11 months you have to pay FULL RETAIL price of the phone then you were not under a contract when your org. one expired....I wish they would talk more about that.
My family has had Cingular for FOREVER. What they do - I know for sure - is this; they will definitely give you an upgrade after your 2 year contract is up. But, if you renew at the year and a half mark, you can get the same discount for the upgrade provided you sign on for another 2 yr. contract. It sounds like you should be fine! Just make sure you mention the year and a half renewal if they try to tell you your contract isn't up yet. Hope this helps!
 

Cantwait4iPhone

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haha ok I see. I think I could probably wait (eek I know) ... I'm surprised there's no online pre-order option you know?
It is likely that you will be able to purchase them online, and think it would be easy to acquire via the internet. However, as it was mentioned before, many people will not be able to wait. I assume that the preorder option will become available in mid June, as they do now want to do anything too early. As for me, though, I am going to try getting to the stores early, not camping out, though, and if that doesn't work, I will just get it online with the overnight shipping.
 

ckontyko

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OK, I got unlazy and listened to the keynote... around 2 min into the iPhone intro, Steve said he wanted to grab 1% market share = 10m units in 2008, "our first full year of production." So, yes, Apple essentially has 18 months to sell 10M.

I stand corrected of myself, or something like that! :sick:

-CJ
 

ColsTiger

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It is likely that you will be able to purchase them online, and think it would be easy to acquire via the internet. However, as it was mentioned before, many people will not be able to wait. I assume that the preorder option will become available in mid June, as they do now want to do anything too early. As for me, though, I am going to try getting to the stores early, not camping out, though, and if that doesn't work, I will just get it online with the overnight shipping.
The big question is still when exactly that first day will be. Can't wait for june 11 to get here. Maybe by then we'll know something for sure.
 

ckontyko

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Agreed. 3 weeks and counting down. Someone needs to create a countdown timer for this site... Day:Hrs:Min:Sec until keynote. :cool:

-CJ
 

Cantwait4iPhone

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Agreed. 3 weeks and counting down. Someone needs to create a countdown timer for this site... Day:Hrs:Min:Sec until keynote. :cool:

-CJ

I agree, and my bet for preorders would be that they would begin on the 11th of June. As for the keynote timer, just dl the phantim3 timer thing that was mentioned on another thread (phantim3.com). I have it on my desktop right now counting down till the keynote, and it's pretty nifty :p
 

slipperypete

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I am hoping for them to start pre-selling on June 11.

As for availablity when they do release, I think if you want one you will be able to get one. Yes there is a ton of intrest, but people saying they are getting one and them actually putting down the $500+ to get one are two completly different things. Plus, Apple usually makes enough to go around when they release something.

This is one of Apples' biggest release in a while, they will make plenty to go around for launch.
 

ColsTiger

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I am hoping for them to start pre-selling on June 11.

As for availablity when they do release, I think if you want one you will be able to get one. Yes there is a ton of intrest, but people saying they are getting one and them actually putting down the $500+ to get one are two completly different things. Plus, Apple usually makes enough to go around when they release something.

This is one of Apples' biggest release in a while, they will make plenty to go around for launch.
I hope you're right on this. Without any Apple stores anywhere around, I have to rely on Cingular/AT&T to come through with enough inventory to go around.:oops:
 

Spin This!

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Yes there is a ton of intrest, but people saying they are getting one and them actually putting down the $500+ to get one are two completly different things.
Agreed... plus, out of all the people who "signed up" most prob won't break their contracts just to get one, a few may lose interest or forgot they even signed up. I'd say at least 1% of those e-mails probably bounced as well. The problem with these forums is the majority of people signed up aren't like us diehards. ;)
 

joe

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Interesting article at MacDailyNews.com.

Here's the part that caught my attention:

The Channel Checkers also reports, "We have stumbled across some info that leads us to believe that HonHai is having trouble manufacturing to schedule and is running behind due to some part delays. It appears that the initial 12 million unit run rate will not be available by June 15."
12M initial units? Really that many at launch? That would be ... a lot! :laugh2: