only 150k on launch?

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gsxr370

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Apr 12, 2007
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#1
this was on e trade----

UBS reiterates Buy. Target $133 to $160. UBS raised their tgt on AAPL to $160 from $133 saying they believe AAPL's iPhone and free cash flow potential is even greater than investors realize. Given the iPhone launch date of June 29, the firm ests 3Q07 iPhone shipments of 150K.
 

robhon

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Mar 17, 2007
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#3
this was on e trade----

UBS reiterates Buy. Target $133 to $160. UBS raised their tgt on AAPL to $160 from $133 saying they believe AAPL's iPhone and free cash flow potential is even greater than investors realize. Given the iPhone launch date of June 29, the firm ests 3Q07 iPhone shipments of 150K.
That doesn't make any sense at all. Someone made a typo somewhere. Most estimates for the iPhone in the second half of this year are upward of 4M.

They'll be selling more than 150k/units on the first day. The first few hours of the first day.
 

robhon

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Mar 17, 2007
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#4
I bet the number was supposed to be 1.5M units in 3Q07. But, with as much press this thing is getting, I think they'll sell more than that.
 

joe

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May 5, 2007
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#5
That doesn't make any sense at all. Someone made a typo somewhere. Most estimates for the iPhone in the second half of this year are upward of 4M.

They'll be selling more than 150k/units on the first day. The first few hours of the first day.
Really? I'm not sure they'll sell that many the first day. I'm still not sure they'll even have that many to sell the first day. I sure hope so! :)
 

robhon

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Mar 17, 2007
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#7
Really? I'm not sure they'll sell that many the first day. I'm still not sure they'll even have that many to sell the first day. I sure hope so! :)
But even to make their base level 2007 projections they need to be selling something on the order of 500k units a month. And then during 2008 they need to be selling nearly double that again.

With this much buzz going it would be a HUGE debacle if they only had 150k at launch, or as the article suggested, they only sold 150k in 3Q07.

That 150k number is just flat wrong.
 

joe

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May 5, 2007
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#9
But even to make their base level 2007 projections they need to be selling something on the order of 500k units a month. And then during 2008 they need to be selling nearly double that again.

With this much buzz going it would be a HUGE debacle if they only had 150k at launch, or as the article suggested, they only sold 150k in 3Q07.

That 150k number is just flat wrong.
I hope you're right!

But if they have 150K on launch day, and 150K every week after that, that's over 4M units this year. But I would guess <150K at launch, and ramping up to well over 150K/wk through the rest of the year. They sell over 150K iPods per day so there's no question they can ramp up to those numbers. I'm just not convinced it will be there on June 29. I would love to be wrong. :)
 

robhon

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Mar 17, 2007
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#10
Here's where I think the clue is on this one:

"...the firm ests 3Q07 iPhone shipments of 150K."

First, we know that the projections are for 3M units in 2007. If they sold 150k units in 3Q then they'd need to sell 2.85M units in 4Q. So that's wrong. I honestly think it's a typo and was supposed to say 1.5M units in 3Q.
 
May 6, 2007
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#11
this was on e trade----

UBS reiterates Buy. Target $133 to $160. UBS raised their tgt on AAPL to $160 from $133 saying they believe AAPL's iPhone and free cash flow potential is even greater than investors realize. Given the iPhone launch date of June 29, the firm ests 3Q07 iPhone shipments of 150K.

That says 150K iPhone shipments in the 3rd quarter, not at launch. I can't believe this, though. A lot of people will start to want it in the third quarter of this year, and 150K iPhones will not feed the demand.
 

slipperypete

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May 20, 2007
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#12
I hope you're right!

But if they have 150K on launch day, and 150K every week after that, that's over 4M units this year. But I would guess <150K at launch, and ramping up to well over 150K/wk through the rest of the year. They sell over 150K iPods per day so there's no question they can ramp up to those numbers. I'm just not convinced it will be there on June 29. I would love to be wrong. :)
I am pretty sure there will be greater than 150K at launch. Think about it, the launch day is going to be the highest sales day for the iPhone...think Apple wants people who want one walking away without one? I can't see Apple getting only 150K out at launch when they probably could sell double that. Apple is trying to make $$$, not make a very wanted product available in limited numbers. Ask Sony about how that turned out with the PS3 release.
 

joe

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May 5, 2007
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#13
I am pretty sure there will be greater than 150K at launch. Think about it, the launch day is going to be the highest sales day for the iPhone...think Apple wants people who want one walking away without one? I can't see Apple getting only 150K out at launch when they probably could sell double that. Apple is trying to make $$$, not make a very wanted product available in limited numbers. Ask Sony about how that turned out with the PS3 release.
I'm totally with you! They really should make sure enough is available to meet demand, even though they don't really know what that is. (They could have a better idea if they start pre-orders now.)

But you must be forgetting previous new product launches by Apple. They have had this exact same scenario before: big new product hyped launch day, but the demand far exceeds supply and only a handful of folks get it and the rest trickle in for next two months.

I really really want it not to be that way but they just haven't done it before. This could be huge if they really do make enough to meet day 1 demand.
 

robhon

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Mar 17, 2007
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#14
You know, if day one supply was going to be super tight I think we'd be getting clues to that fact slipping out into the press. That's not what I'm getting at all. The larger and more reliable news sources all seem to be suggesting that there are going to be plenty.