So what are the chances...

maclaptopuser

New Member
Bronze
Jun 13, 2007
202
0
0
I just did a few speculation calculations for some fun:

Consider each Apple store gets on AVERAGE 300 iPhone units and there are approximately 175 Apple stores. 300*175=52,500 units total for Apple stores

Say the 1,800 corporate ATT stores get 200 each on average. 200*1,800=360,000


52,500+360,000=412,500 total units.


I don't know whether these numbers are relevant but just for the sake of it, consider these numbers to be true. Personally I believe Apple wants to sell as many possible units on opening day which is why I estimated store averages so high. The total for all 1,800 ATT stores and approx. 175 Apple stores is 412,500 units available day one, probably an overestimate but given the strong demand and interest, is still quite a bit short of what will be needed. This could either be good or bad as Apple may be desperately under supplied or totally accurate with its first day sales projections. Predictions of 20 per store equal a total of only 39,500 units....why would Apple be prepared with only 39,500 units on the launch day of ots most anticipated product launch ever? Just something to think about...
Kudo's on your excellent and well written post.....:laugh2:

I will respond based on my 10 years as a loyal Apple customer frequently buying new products. I have had more than 10 new PowerBooks and now 2 new MacBook Pros. Around 6 iPods, 2 desktops, and various Mac accessories.

Typically the biggest problem or mistake that Apple makes is to build the hype up to unmanageable proportions. Then they fail to have enough units ready to satisfy the demand. Usually they are able to fill at least 10% of the demand. This is very shortsighted and the reason they have such a very low market share on the computer side.

Example: I have a very reliable source "within Apple" someone I've known for nearly 20 years. He is very high up in the company and shares that they are attempting to have between 20 and 40 phones available per store. Some will only get 10, some will get none (smaller stores) and some may get the full 40.

Now this is the very reason that some people on this board are critical and dislike my posts. They simply fail to see that I'm sharing my experience with Apple.

l have stated repeatedly that I am a very loyal Apple customer that loves their products.

I am in no way bashing Apple, simply sharing. It's what a forum like this is for. You are not always going to hear what you like or what you want.

From my posts you will get the truth presented in a fair and unbiased, neutral position. If I did not like Apple I would not be wasting my time posting here.

So it is what it is........

I too hope that perhaps this time they do a better job. Only time will tell.
 

ps49556n

New Member
Silver
Jun 21, 2007
545
1
0
NYC
<quote>Typically the biggest problem or mistake that Apple makes is to build the hype up to unmanageable proportions. Then they fail to have enough units ready to satisfy the demand. Usually they are able to fill at least 10% of the demand. This is very shortsighted and the reason they have such a very low market share on the computer side.</quote>

Thank you

That is a good statement about previous Apple launches. I am willing to believe that you have a reliable Apple contact and that is what he told you, but to coincide with your comment about Apple failing to meet demand on a new release, I am betting(hoping:sick:) that Apple has learned from its mistakes and wants to make an impact from day one. Some times people do not realize that despite an immense build up and anticipation period prior to a product's launch, people quickly loose interest in a product days following a new release. This could be due to hearing user experiences, media reports, or just having other things going on in their life. I will be one to say that when the Nintendo Wii was released I had almost as much a desire to get one as I do for the iPhone right now. Long story short, I still do not have Wii, due to the fact that it was far too difficult for me to obtain one, for months and I really got tired of the hassle involved. And BTW I live in NYC which you would think would have a good supply.


All I am saying is that I think that by now Apple knows this is the biggest, most-anticipated product launch in the company's history, possibly in America. I have been saying this over and over but Apple must know what is at stake with this new device and hopefully has prepared for it.
 

billnye97

Contributor
Silver
Jun 21, 2007
851
77
28
Cleveland
I just did a few speculation calculations for some fun:

Consider each Apple store gets on AVERAGE 300 iPhone units and there are approximately 175 Apple stores. 300*175=52,500 units total for Apple stores

Say the 1,800 corporate ATT stores get 200 each on average. 200*1,800=360,000


52,500+360,000=412,500 total units.


I don't know whether these numbers are relevant but just for the sake of it, consider these numbers to be true. Personally I believe Apple wants to sell as many possible units on opening day which is why I estimated store averages so high. The total for all 1,800 ATT stores and approx. 175 Apple stores is 412,500 units available day one, probably an overestimate but given the strong demand and interest, is still quite a bit short of what will be needed. This could either be good or bad as Apple may be desperately under supplied or totally accurate with its first day sales projections. Predictions of 20 per store equal a total of only 39,500 units....why would Apple be prepared with only 39,500 units on the launch day of ots most anticipated product launch ever? Just something to think about...
Thats a very good explanation of the numbers. I would hope they would at least have 1 million on launch. If there are actually 3 million then there would be absolutely no problem getting one if you wanted it. I think that would be about 1500 per store. I really don't see them having that many but hopefully at least a million will be available day one.
 

maclaptopuser

New Member
Bronze
Jun 13, 2007
202
0
0
<quote>Typically the biggest problem or mistake that Apple makes is to build the hype up to unmanageable proportions. Then they fail to have enough units ready to satisfy the demand. Usually they are able to fill at least 10% of the demand. This is very shortsighted and the reason they have such a very low market share on the computer side.</quote>

Thank you

That is a good statement about previous Apple launches. I am willing to believe that you have a reliable Apple contact and that is what he told you, but to coincide with your comment about Apple failing to meet demand on a new release, I am betting(hoping:sick:) that Apple has learned from its mistakes and wants to make an impact from day one. Some times people do not realize that despite an immense build up and anticipation period prior to a product's launch, people quickly loose interest in a product days following a new release. This could be due to hearing user experiences, media reports, or just having other things going on in their life. I will be one to say that when the Nintendo Wii was released I had almost as much a desire to get one as I do for the iPhone right now. Long story short, I still do not have Wii, due to the fact that it was far too difficult for me to obtain one, for months and I really got tired of the hassle involved. And BTW I live in NYC which you would think would have a good supply.


All I am saying is that I think that by now Apple knows this is the biggest, most-anticipated product launch in the company's history, possibly in America. I have been saying this over and over but Apple must know what is at stake with this new device and hopefully has prepared for it.
I truly enjoyed reading your intelligent well written post above. You and I are on the same page regarding this topic.

My loyalty is not "blind loyalty", but an appreciation of the products Apple has carefuly engineered and perfected over the test of time. This does not include every Apple product, much like any other company, which has it's great products and then the ones that are not exactly up to their normal standard.

That said, I can relate to your comment about Wii. You found out about this great product, did your research, made a decision to buy one, but could not, due to limited supply. I have been in this exact position with Apple on far more than one occasion, specifically with their PowerBook line of notebook computers. This is a very frustrating position to be in and does indeed diminish our enthusiasm for the brands that fail to deliver.

I use a laptop as my main computer and prefer Apple notebooks, however the number of times when I was ready and had planned to buy the "latest" model upon release date, only to be unable to do so due to lack of supply, has cooled my trust in Apple. In many cases it was not only that they were not readily available at launch time, but still not available months later. One can only wait so long.

I too, hope that Apple has learned from this and will not repeat it in the case of the iPhone. However speaking for myself, I have set my expectations to zero, and hope that this time is different.

Finally I truly believe that if Apple would get serious and change this trend going forward, they would have a serious increase in market share. Think about it.... they are already doing very well from a revenue standpoint.... just think what could be accomplished if they would stand and deliver adequate quantities from release day forward.

I will (once again) give them the benefit of the doubt and think positive about this next launch.
 

Marksman

New Member
Bronze
Jun 4, 2007
335
0
0
I think the thing that people need to understand is this is just not an Apple launch. They have a major partner involved who have their own interests. And creating long-term demand is not really what they want. They want people locked into contracts as soon as possible, not sitting around waiting to get a phone.

So while Apple's history is interesting to look at, you have to factor in that AT&T is playing a major role in this entire process and does have say in how things are set up.
 

maclaptopuser

New Member
Bronze
Jun 13, 2007
202
0
0
I think the thing that people need to understand is this is just not an Apple launch. They have a major partner involved who have their own interests. And creating long-term demand is not really what they want.

1) They want people locked into contracts as soon as possible, not sitting around waiting to get a phone.

So while Apple's history is interesting to look at, you have to factor in that

2) AT&T is playing a major role in this entire process and does have say in how things are set up.
You have brought up some very important and valid points here.

As a long term customer of both of these companies I get your point and do not disagree.

1) I agree that AT&T wants secured contracts now.

A) However I also believe that they chose to get involved for the exposure as well. It buys them time in the spotlight of the press that they would otherwise not be a part of. If presents an opportunity for them to be seen as a progressive company, instead of this "old telecom". This is of great value to AT&T.

B) Another advantage is the iPhone will drive up foot traffic in the store and give them an opportunity to sell other models to those who cannot afford or do not want the iPhone.

2) While like any other contract, both parties do have a certain degree of control, knowing how Apple operates indicates that the majority of control is with them. After all it's their product. They created it, they developed it, and they will dictate the terms and conditions of service within the available services offered by AT&T.

A) This works for AT&T because the number of iPhones sold will pale in comparison to the overall total number of units sold across AT&T's complete line of nearly 100 available models.

B) If Apple operates true to form and falls flat running out of iPhones, this will not reflect badly on anyone other than Apple, thus again AT&T wins as they get exposure but no blame for poor planning or execution on Apples' part.

However that said, I think that this time Apple has the most incentive ever to perform properly. If they are up to it, and that is the major question as they have never competed in this highly competitive environment before, then the success with be there for AT&T to enjoy as well.

So moreover, it appears that AT&T has the most to gain and nothing to lose.

Good Luck to Apple, they are going to need it.
 

Spin This!

New Member
Silver
May 4, 2007
504
0
0
^^ Great post...

I have to agree on the demand. They had a 6 month lead time to get this product rolling... let's hope Apple delivers this time and doesn't pull an Apple TV on us.
 

maclaptopuser

New Member
Bronze
Jun 13, 2007
202
0
0
^^ Great post...

I have to agree on the demand. They had a 6 month lead time to get this product rolling... let's hope Apple delivers this time and doesn't pull an Apple TV on us.
Thanks!

I do indeed hope that Apple does a great job and pulls this off. If would be so nice to see them do it right and shake up the industry.

This would be such a benefit to all of us. The more competition the better. Apple has a massive amount of time and money invested here and I wish them all the best.