The movie "21"

smknSRT8

Zealot
Gold
Oct 13, 2007
1,325
1
38
#1
Has anyone seen this movie?

If so, there is a math problem in the beginning of the movie that is about a game show and three doors. two of the doors have goats behind them and the other has a car. the contestant chooses door #1. The host tells the contestant that behind door #3 and asks the contestest if he would like to switch his choice from 1 to 2. The contest (being the student in the class at MIT) says YES why wouldn't I!?! "Thats 66% chances, thanks for the 33%"

Can anyone tell me the reason that this is?
In the movie they talked about linear variation.

Can iPhone solve this!?!? haha
 
H

Hayesimus

Guest
#4
that's a load of crap. whether you say 2/3 or 1/2 it doesn't change the scenario... they made that WAY more complicated than necessary...
 

Alexander

Zealot
Gold
Jun 28, 2007
1,724
0
36
Atlanta
#5
that's a load of crap. whether you say 2/3 or 1/2 it doesn't change the scenario... they made that WAY more complicated than necessary...
Solid argument Hayes, with that kind of logic you may have just gave Prof. Francois Bergeron and Steven R. Costenoble of Drexel University a run for their money. :rolleyes:
 

smknSRT8

Zealot
Gold
Oct 13, 2007
1,325
1
38
#6
that's a load of crap. whether you say 2/3 or 1/2 it doesn't change the scenario... they made that WAY more complicated than necessary...
I am confused? you have a 66% chance of winning the car if you switch after the host tells you what the "non-car" door is?
 
H

Hayesimus

Guest
#7
that's what I'm saying is more complicated than necessary. Regardless of how Manu doors you start out with, if you have to choose between tqlwo doors then your odds are 50/50. No way around it.
 

smknSRT8

Zealot
Gold
Oct 13, 2007
1,325
1
38
#8
that's what I'm saying is more complicated than necessary. Regardless of how Manu doors you start out with, if you have to choose between tqlwo doors then your odds are 50/50. No way around it.
i understand the problem, I was confused with what you said. I don't agree with 50/50 though because. Also, I know you know this but the guys are from MIT, they can most likely crunch number better than we can.

If you don't believe it, then just play the game 100 times and if you switch after you find out the door where the "non-car" is, you will win 66% of the time.

I didn't necessarily believe it at first but gave 40 or so tries at work and it was higher than i thought
 
H

Hayesimus

Guest
#9
I'm saying that it doesn't matter. It doesn't change the fact that between two choices there is a 50/50 chance. The 66% I'd when you include the door that was eliminated. Which is pointless. This whole scenario is pointless! Does this give us world peace? Does it put an end to hunger?! Does it give us MMS on the iPhone!?!?! :p
 
H

Hayesimus

Guest
#11
that's what I was thinking. Chances and statistics are not the same. 66% is if you played the scenario multiple times. But if you only play it once then you only end up with a or b. So 50/50.