Actually, as I read analysts' reports they're starting to say Apple may beat their initial projections.
I've never seen reports on individual phones as a percentage of market share. Most reports are based on company market share.
One report I just read says that in Q1 of 2006 Motorola had 20.6% of the world cellphone market (probably based in dollar figures). That probably puts the Razr well above 1% of the total cell phone market.
The tough job for Apple is they are not just selling a cellphone that, often, at least in the US, come free with your service. They are trying to sell 10 million $500 smart phones in 2008. By comparison Palm has sold maybe a million Treo's in the past year. So, Apple says they're going to do 10X that.
All-in-all it's a bold and dangerous gamble on the part of Apple. But I also believe it's what will put them on top of the world electronics market in years to come.