First generation iPhones may be worthless...

applefreak

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Jun 24, 2007
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There isn't anything "new" about more storage capacity, or even a 3G chip. The iPhone has been in development for years and all the major development is done. Releasing new models is inevitable and makes perfect businesss sense. The version 1.0 iPhones can become the entry level options at lower pricing tiers to reel in those who aren't willing to spend $500-600 for a phone.

Unless you want to conduct a cost/benefit analysis and post it here...do you have manufacturing and distribution data that we don't know about? I'll base my guesses on past Apple behavior with similar products.
 

Fat Man

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Jun 27, 2007
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Europe will probably get slightly modified 1.0 gen iPhones with a different connection to the internet with the service provider (possibly 3G). Asia and Australia probably will get the same too. Buy this time the new ipod fleet will be launched with the revamped iPhone interface. I guess some new software and hightened UI will take pride of place on the new ipods to keep up consumer interest. In about 6 months or less, maybe with the European launch or just before, expect a more affordable but more crippled version of iPhone to be released - although again with a couple of features that are special to that model (remember how the first gen nanos had the screen lock function). It will be nothing major, but you get the idea.
This is just my opinion to how things will play out. Knowing Apple it will probably be slightly more intricate and elaborate:eek:
 

Standog

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There isn't anything "new" about more storage capacity, or even a 3G chip. The iPhone has been in development for years and all the major development is done. Releasing new models is inevitable and makes perfect businesss sense. The version 1.0 iPhones can become the entry level options at lower pricing tiers to reel in those who aren't willing to spend $500-600 for a phone.

Unless you want to conduct a cost/benefit analysis and post it here...do you have manufacturing and distribution data that we don't know about? I'll base my guesses on past Apple behavior with similar products.
I was an economics major at Northwestern, so I have a little knowledge, but I don't propose that I' an expert. What I'm saying is that logically it wouldn't make sense for a company to put out a phone and then basically outdate that model in a a manner of 6 months with such a major change. I could see offering a phone with a higher capacity hard drive which is a minor change. See otherwise, why would Apple say that they would be supplying updates through iTunes to make changes to the phone if they knew a new phone was coming?

In most cases if it can be done in software, it's more economically feasible to upgrade that over the hardware. Apple is really concerned with customer loyalty which would take a hit by introducing a radically different iPhone 6 months from now.

I'm not sure if you've heard that Vodafone might be picking the phone up overseas, so this could be a change for that market, but I would bet a lot of money you won't see a major change in the next year. R&D costs too much, they have pushed back Leopard to get the phone out already, do you think they'll push that back even further to develop iPhone 2.0 between now and Christmas?

Show me an example of when Apple released a product and then released a major hardware upgrade to that product within 6 months. It just doesn't happen. It just doesn't make sense from a businesss aspect.

If you paid attention to the original projection it was to sell 15 million or so of these in the next year. That means 3 million at launch and 12 million+ in production and then in warehouses. Tell me, what would happen to those other say 6 million sitting in the warehouse if they introduced a new iPhone 6 months from now? They'd basically be useless.

So no, I'm not privy to any secret Apple knowledge, but using businesss knowledge and common sense, I think nearly anyone could come to that conclusion. You won't see a new iPhone for at least a year in the US.
 

applefreak

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Ignoring the fact that this is all conjecture, you keep using the term "new" or suggesting R&D investment is necessary for Apple to release a 2.0 version that will likely have two major changes: increased storage and 3G. Just glancing at the ipod and mac hardware lines and you can see their strategy of diversifying product lines through such feature sets.

Again, this phone has been in development for years. Jobs had a working prototype back in January. Companies like Apple don't get where they are by dreaming up their next move after they complete the first one -- they have a strategic plan that spans 3 to 5 year outlooks. Apple already has a plan in place and probably already has prototypes of its next follow-up models for the iPhone as part of its overall strategy.

You're thinking from the present while Jobs is thinking where he wants to be 5 years from now. And that includes targeting the mass market outside of early adopters and techies that will drive sales for the first 6 months. After that, he'll want the $200-300 market of folks who simply will not drop half a grand-plus on a phone and a 2 year contract.

Btw, I'm a healthcare exec with a masters in health admin. Basically a healthcare MBA, but far more lucrative in an industry only second to national defense relative to national spending. Undergrad in IT. Economics is nice, but it's all theory...we used to joke that you basically could sum up all economics courses in 3 words: supply and demand. Strategy is a lot more dynamic than that. That's how you gain competitive advantage.