No your logic is flawed.
Your comments are based entirely on "smart phone" users who account for less than 5% of the ENTIRE cell phone market.
The average cell phone user pays $59 (with rebate) for a phone and $40/month for voice service.
The average cell phone users is NOT going to spend $500 (no rebate) on an iPhone and $40/month on a data plan on top of the $40/month voice plan.
You can take your foot out of your mouth now!
First, the Jobs said he is not out for massive market shares, just a 1% share (am I quoting that right?
) which i think is definitely possible, considering your figure that 5% of cellphone users are smartphone users.
Do you really believe the iPhone is targeted for soccer moms with razrs or people using a Verizon Chocolate? Come on, it is a hardcore phone for the hardcore user. How many "average" cell phone users are actually going to purchase an iPhone? Im sure there are many, many average users who WANT one, but few will follow up on that, which is in-line with the initial post.
You and your calculations are comparing the 2-year cost of an iPhone to the 2 year cost of a basic plastic flip phone? The comparison is unfair because most if not all of these basic flip phones are either free or heavily subsidized with a 2 year contract. These people either don't want to spend the money or don't need/arent interested in the features of the iPhone which is why it should be compared to a device such as a blackberry which uses the same data plans and costs a little less.
I don't really see what is hard to understand about this. You are comparing the costs associated with the iPhone to the costs of a basic "razr"-like cell phone and service when it is competing agains blackberries, treos, blackjacks, etc....
to a certain degree though.
