Just curious, did you use scan.pst on your outlook.pst file? You say you did the archive file, but made no mention of the pst file that is the one that actually syncs with the iPhone.
Tried this workaround.
Thought we were onto something when scanpst.exe found errors in my outlook archive.
Performed a sync after correcting them, but to no avail.
While contacts appears to sync ok, calendar still will not sync.
New entries in either Outlook or iPhone calendars will not show up in the other device after an error free sync.
Still waiting on Apple.
Thank you for posting this potential solution.
I hope it will help others.