I was thinking, and I think a realistic upgrade to the 3G iPhone for me will be when I need a battery replacement for the first version. You're looking at $85 to get the battery replaced (unless that's changed) and only $200 for a brand new phone. After 400 or so charges, you'll be at 80% battery capacity and at that point, I'll probably get the new phone. I was thinking it's been almost a year and I charge on average 2-3 times a week, so that's around 150 charges so far maybe a little less.