When do you think the iPhone will be released? [Poll]

iPhone Release Date

  • June 11/12 (Monday or Tuesday)

    Votes: 7 22.6%

  • June 15 (Friday)

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • June 20

    Votes: 1 3.2%

  • June 29 (Friday)

    Votes: 13 41.9%
  • Total voters
    31
S

Spin This!

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Before you vote, I did a little bit of research here and some neutral rationale for each release date.

Read on...

June 11/12 (Monday or Tuesday)

Sources:

Credibility:
BGR reports a couple AT&T posters have mentioned the April 11 date; Jobs Keynote at WWDC is June 11; why not announce immediate or Tuesday (typical Apple release date) availability? Jobs could easily segue into (or out of) how developers will be able to make applications for the phone, etc.

However, Apple is very good at creating a buzz for new products. Jobs could just as easily announce the official launch date for the phone, creating even more buzz to follow than an immediate release would.


June 15 (Friday)

Credibility:
The AT&T Corporate Memo mentions employees won't be able to take off after June 15 or before July 15. That's a pretty big window, implying AT&T doesn't really want to reveal the official release date. What gives it credibility is June 15 is incredibly close to the keynote, perhaps being able to pre-order online, with AT&T brick and mortar stores receiving theirs in shortly thereafter on Friday for the "official" release.

MailTank announces in their press release their product is ready for release when the iPhone will hit shelves: June 15. Are they just speculating like the rest of us or do they know something we don't?


June 20 (Wednesday)

Source:
  • AT&T Store reps (reported by CNBC's "On the Money")

Credibility:
Just because it's a national news source doesn't make it credible. AP asked AT&T/Apple and they couldn't confirm. More importantly, why release in the middle of a week? Apple historically announces products on Tuesdays, not Wednesdays. Let's just throw this one out.


June 29 (Friday)

Sources:

Credibility:
In the case of Apple, it doesn't get any later in June than this.

Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster have been pretty reliable in the past, accurately predicting the unveiling of the iPhone and announcing availability of the Apple TV at Macworld. Munster says the release is going to come down right to the wire in June.

At least one AT&T store has mentioned this specific date from an EI forum member; the manager in question cites a corporate e-mail as the source. They'll be receiving shipments on the 28 with general release the next day.

I was previously under the assumption that Jobs would announce immediate (or Tuesday/Friday) availability at WWDC on June 11, but everything I've read, I keep coming to the conclusion that Jobs will probably use WWDC to announce a separate "Media Event" as they've had in the past to introduce the iPhone and rehash its features/plans.

Jobs is not going to give Leopard or the iPhone a backseat and spend about a half hour of developer's time going over available plans and when the iPhone will be available, rehash features, etc. A product such as the iPhone deserves its own "initiation" which it will receive at a separate event. We've already seen most of the what iPhone can do; most people who have already seen the demo are either sold or not on the device. One thing that may seal the deal: if Jobs does mention the iPhone, he'll probably put the rest that developers will be able to develop for the iPhone and support is built-into Leopard, if he does this at all.
 
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robhon

robhon

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Yeah, me too. I think (speculation on my part) Apple uses Piper to quietly leak information into the public.
 
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I would not rule that out...

The Wall Street Journal, especially, has consistently been very accurate in their Apple "predictions". They will usually report a couple days (or hours) before the actual announcement takes place so I would not be surprised if they make a prediction that Friday (June 8) as to what's expected Monday.
 
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joe

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A customer service manager at Cingular (we called 800-947-5096 and were transferred to sales) gave us that date late Thursday, but, alas, said he didn't have any additional information beyond that.
Click to expand...
Sounds like a similar story to what we've heard on this forum: calling or stopping by a Cingular store and being told the "for sure" date. This could very well be the date but so could the others.

And this could be the date when the date will be announced rather than when it's actually available.
 
ColsTiger

ColsTiger

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The 15th is the day. I think they'll be available online on the 11th and then in stores on the 15th. It's just setting up that way.
 
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mav

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I think 6/11-6/12 makes the most sense. WWDC starts on 6/11. Why not start it with an announcement that the iPhone will be immediately available for purchase online at Apple.com and available in Apple stores tomorrow, 6/12? Apple typically releases products on a Tuesday. 6/12 is the only Tuesday of the rumored possible dates. Apple/Jobs can also take maximum advantage of the iPhone hype as well as state that they beat expectations of a late June launch by launching two weeks ahead of schedule.

In my opinion, the only other possible date is 6/15. Celebrate the end of WWDC with the iPhone launch and build marketing hype around launching it on a Friday and into the weekend.
 
robhon

robhon

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Steve definitely WANTS to announce it at the WWDC. But if the iPhone is like most any piece of high technology I'm betting they are still going to be massaging out the final big bugs when the 11th comes along. I think they'll be lucky to hit the 29th!

That's why I think they're sneaking tidbits of data out through Piper Jaffrey, so that when the 2/29 date is announced it won't pound their lofty stock price into oblivion.
 
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"While there may be rumors of an iPhone launch at WWDC, we expect Apple will host a separate event in late June to launch the device."
—Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray
Click to expand...
Note there has never been an iPod launched at WWDC. I can't see Jobs launch the iPhone on the 11th unless they plan on asking developers to support it.
 
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Spin This!

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I just called a couple stores around here... I got responses from "no idea" to "Late June".

One of the Milwaukee stores I called mentioned there's even going to be extra security for the launch. And a couple stores said for most new phones they only get 1 or 2.... I think I'm going to be ordering online.

One store rep did spill a date: "June 29 is the tentative release" she said. I'm almost convinced now that's going to be the street date.
 
Cantwait4iPhone

Cantwait4iPhone

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Spin This! said:
I just called a couple stores around here... I got responses from "no idea" to "Late June".

One of the Milwaukee stores I called mentioned there's even going to be extra security for the launch. And a couple stores said for most new phones they only get 1 or 2.... I think I'm going to be ordering online.

One store rep did spill a date: "June 29 is the tentative release" she said. I'm almost convinced now that's going to be the street date.
Click to expand...

I am almost convinced on either the 15th or the 29th. It is hard to tell, and there are reasons to support both possibilities. The 15th would be the Friday after WWDC, and many reports have announced that date. The AT&T memo also showed support for this date.

The 29th also has a bulk of support. With the production schedule, this seems more likely. This would also give them over two weeks from WWDC to get ready for launch. There have also been reports noting that the 29th will be the date, and this fits better with the "late June" statement.


I don't know which I would want more, the 15th or the 29th. The 15th would mean we could get it sooner, while the 29th would make it so more are readily available. There might be less of chance of glitches or bugs if it is released on the 29th, as it would give them more time to review and make sure they have done everything right (though this better be done already :D).


That said, I think it would be funny if it ends up be released on a date that hasn't even been rumored :D
 
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mav

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robhon said:
But if the iPhone is like most any piece of high technology I'm betting they are still going to be massaging out the final big bugs when the 11th comes along.
Click to expand...
This is highly doubtful. Even to make 6/30, the iPhone must be feature complete, fully beta tested and under full production by now. If Apple is still working out the bugs on 6/11, we won't be seeing the iPhone until August or September.
 
wot_fan

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mav said:
This is highly doubtful. Even to make 6/30, the iPhone must be feature complete, fully beta tested and under full production by now. If Apple is still working out the bugs on 6/11, we won't be seeing the iPhone until August or September.
Click to expand...
That depends on if the bugs are software or hardware based. Hardware problems would cause production delays. Software problems can be fixed at anytime. iTunes will make it easy to update the iPhone so even software problems found after the iPhone is sold can easily by fixed.
 
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